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Some expansion of manufacturing capacity has taken place (new physical plant and employment) but this represents major investment and would never be made to cover the peaks in demand because the valleys also have to sustain the cost of the plant and salaries.

The 10 million new gun owners (in the past 18 months) consume a billion rounds of ammo if they only buy 100 rounds each. The manufacturers are aware of that demand, and are surely working to fulfil it.

Labor is more expensive. Raw materials are more costly. Welcome to Leftist nirvana.
 

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In World War II, U.S. factories cranked out, along with mountains of other munitions, about 41.4 billion rounds of small-arms ammunition, enough to permit the users to take about ten shots at every man, woman, and child alive on earth at that time.
 
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In World War II, U.S. factories cranked out, along with mountains of other munitions, about 41.4 billion rounds of small-arms ammunition, enough to permit the users to take about ten shots at every man, woman, and child alive on earth at that time.
And as a result there were large surpluses of ex-military ammo for decades, which (along with the greatly reduced military purchases of ammo) resulted in the vast majority of that production capacity being scrapped... including the equipment for making that ammo!

Remember, most (by a large factor) of that ammo was made in factories set up just for that WW2 production, using equipment manufactured just for those factories, almost all of which sat idle post-war until scrapped to allow something else to be manufactured in those buildings.
 

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I went to our Massachusetts Cabela's yesterday to (hopefully) use up more of my unused gift cards. A few boring plastic handguns... zero handgun ammo... some over-priced 5.56 & 7.62 ammo. :rolleyes: Nothing good.

I've mentioned before that I want to stock up on primers once supply and prices return to a new normal... so I thought I'd check out the reloading supply aisles. While Cabela's did have some reloading supplies, there were no primers to be had at all at any price. I asked a clerk about it and he just laughed at me. :sneaky:

Soooooo, I guess it isn't time yet. :ROFLMAO:
The most irritating part to me is Canadian websites have all our favorite USA primers for sale (excluding any sales to US consumers!?!) That doesn’t pass the smell test 🦨
 

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The most irritating part to me is Canadian websites have all our favorite USA primers for sale (excluding any sales to US consumers!?!) That doesn’t pass the smell test 🦨
It just feels like there is a big anti-gun thumb on the scales. They can’t take your guns away (yet), but we can make ammo and components unobtainable or prohibitively expensive. In Oregon there is a proposed referendum to require a gun permit and registry of all guns! Never knew of a criminal obeying any gun laws, so the target must be law abiding good guys. I’m a capitalist and free enterprise guy, but a “free” market only works when the regulatory powers aren‘t controlling the suppression of our Constitution. I don’t believe we are in that space regarding ammo and components. I’m glad I had a goodly stockpile before the iron fist came down. If left coast voters have their way ………… who knows?
 

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Discussion Starter · #66 ·
I think that the issue with Primers in the US market is that the ammo manufactures have been consuming the output of the production lines to satisfy the requirements for manufactured ammunition. We have about 10 million new firearm owners in the USA in the past 20 months, and if each were to buy 100 rounds of ammo, that would be a billion rounds, and consume a billion primers.

This should resolve over time as the manufacturing lines have come back online (at Remington) and new lines start being constructed and coming online.

I don't know where components come from that Canada retailers sell. It could be Europe or other places not experiencing the kind of demand peaks we have seen.
 

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I think that the issue with Primers in the US market is that the ammo manufactures have been consuming the output of the production lines to satisfy the requirements for manufactured ammunition. We have about 10 million new firearm owners in the USA in the past 20 months, and if each were to buy 100 rounds of ammo, that would be a billion rounds, and consume a billion primers.

This should resolve over time as the manufacturing lines have come back online (at Remington) and new lines start being constructed and coming online.

I don't know where components come from that Canada retailers sell. It could be Europe or other places not experiencing the kind of demand peaks we have seen.
CCI primers at Cabelas in Canada only, with Canada dollars. US made, aren’t they?
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$80.00 - $100.00 is probably the new normal for at least the foreseeable future, and perhaps beyond.. I got 400, small pistol primers for about the same price at the L G S a couple months back. I sold them to a fellow club member for what I gave, as he was almost out.

I am not out of small pistols, but my supply is down to levels that worry me. Since I have quite a few more large pistol primers, so I am switching to 45 ACP this year.

I was at the range more times for meetings, and work days, than I was to shoot this year. I was only at the range to shoot 5 or 6 times that I can think of. So no more than I shot this year, I can probably can hold out a couple years or maybe more, depending on how much I shoot.

As long as I park the 9mm Ruger, PC Carbine, my supply should hold out. Its my biggest consumer of ammo.. Just so much fun to shoot, before you know it, you have ran through 100 or more rounds..

I see there is basically no powder available on Powder Valley or Midway right now either. Looks like that is the next problem facing us.
L G S had quite a selection of Rifle Powders a while back, but almost no pistol powders. Not sure if that is still the case, as that was late summer, when I was last there.. That may have changed too..
 

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Discussion Starter · #70 ·
I think we'll still be waiting some months for things in the ammo channels to stabilize. The more common ammunition calibers are appearing now in stores (9mm, 5.56mm) at a "new normal" price that is slowly descending. Manufacturers are starting to move on to less common caliber ammunition on the production lines.

Once they have adequate coverage, I expect reloading components and supplies to start to appear on the market and then slowly stabilize in price.
 

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How many shortages have we been through? How many more will there be before ammo industry executives revisit the USA manufacturing capacity is insufficient to meet the demand of the number of shooters in the USA today?

In the recent past, imported ammo and components have made up a lot of the ammo consumed. Correct me if I'm wrong, but my understanding is that The Vegetable's administration has banned importing ammo, making the shortages even worse.
 

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Correct me if I'm wrong, but my understanding is that The Vegetable's administration has banned importing ammo, making the shortages even worse.
Mostly just impacting prices for now...
 

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How many shortages have we been through? How many more will there be before ammo industry executives revisit the USA manufacturing capacity is insufficient to meet the demand of the number of shooters in the USA today?

In the recent past, imported ammo and components have made up a lot of the ammo consumed. Correct me if I'm wrong, but my understanding is that The Vegetable's administration has banned importing ammo, making the shortages even worse.
Smile Human Happy Organism Carnivore
 

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How many shortages have we been through? How many more will there be before ammo industry executives revisit the USA manufacturing capacity is insufficient to meet the demand of the number of shooters in the USA today?
We have more than enough manufacturing capacity to meet the current demands of shooters today. The problem is surge buying and hoarding. We saw it for 5 years with .22 rimfire ammunition after the Sandy Hook shooting. Before that happened, .22 ammo was EVERYWHERE, and at bargain prices. And was for decades. After Sandy Hook, and for almost the next 5 years, they stripped the shelves bare. And paid insane prices to boot. They all thought the sky was falling.

We saw the same with guns and high capacity magazines after Obama was elected. Everything flew off the shelves in a matter of a few weeks. Then, after less than a year, it returned to normal. Look at the guns and ammo market after Trump's election in 2016. Distributors stocked up on everything that went bang. All anticipating a big win by Hillary. When that didn't happen they had product stacked to the rafters. The only shortage were customers, who saw Trump as no danger to their guns. For almost 4 years there were sales everywhere on everything gun and ammunition related.... Few took advantage. Those are the one's who all bitching and moaning now.

Then came Covid, followed by Biden. No one could have possibly predicted either. Then, once again, the Lemmings ran to strip the shelves bare. All thinking the world was going to end...... Again. And here we are, after coming full circle... AGAIN.

The problem isn't manufacturing. It never was. It's a totally erratic customer buying market. The slightest thing triggers them. Manufacturers are not going to invest millions in equipment, only to have it sit more than it runs. Not to mention laying people off because they only need them when their customer base goes crazy every couple of years.

This has been going on since "Dirty Harry" came out in the 70's. And everyone and their brother ran to buy a big revolver that was being made since the 50's. That they didn't even know existed. Until they saw Clint Eastwood with one. Men with guns and ammunition can be worse than women with designer fashions. I remember women fighting in stores over Gloria Vanderbilt jeans. People are nuts.
 

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We've all heard those excuses and that's all they are. Believe them and blame the "erratic" customer if you want; Lord knows we've heard that story a million times. There is no surge capacity in most of our gun and ammo supply lines, so enjoy your "customer" caused shortages because they will be here to stay unless something changes in the business model of ammo companies--customers are NOT going to change. As long as they fear shortages, which they have every reason to, they will react exactly as they have been, by buying more ammo than they need because they don't know when they'll see it again. There is nothing vile or greedy about that.

More and more would-be shooters enter the market every year yet there is no corresponding increase in production capacity. My belief as to why this is, is because the producers are fearful that one day leftists will get their way and private ownership of firearms will be banned and they would be left holding the bag for their investment in facilities. Another possibility is our government is providing incentives to ammo manufacturers to keep the supply of ammo low as guns are worthless without ammo.
 

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The problem isn't manufacturing. It never was. It's a totally erratic customer buying market. The slightest thing triggers them.
... customers are NOT going to change. As long as they fear shortages, which they have every reason to, they will react exactly as they have been, by buying more ammo than they need because they don't know when they'll see it again. There is nothing vile or greedy about that.
(emphasis added by me)

100% Correct. The cyclical buying behavior is never going to change. We know it and the manufacturers know it. The events which cause sales spikes are largely unpredictable just as the lower sales periods of "calm before the storm" are too. Anyone betting big money on human nature changing anytime soon is taking one heck of a risk.

All we who have observed this can do is stay well stocked up. There is no other good solution.
 

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........ customers are NOT going to change. As long as they fear shortages, which they have every reason to, they will react exactly as they have been, by buying more ammo than they need because they don't know when they'll see it again. There is nothing vile or greedy about that.
No, there isn't. Except for the fact they go about it so stupidly. All the time, every time. Instead of buying when it's cheap and plentiful, they wait until it's expensive and difficult to find. Then they stand in line for it. And they're not, "buying more than they need". They're paying more for less of it.

Manufacturers are not going to invest millions of dollars in equipment to make more. Not when they have idiots lined up to pay twice the price. And not only that, but fight each other to pay it, for what's already being put out there. They're not stupid, their customers are. Why should they invest more to produce twice the ammo, so they can sell it for half as much?

More and more would-be shooters enter the market every year yet there is no corresponding increase in production capacity.
I keep hearing that, but I NEVER see it. I'm retired, and shoot several times a week. Including weekends. I never see more shooters at the ranges. In fact during the .22 shortage, the rimfire ranges near me were all but empty. These people who are dumb enough to hold off buying ammo until they are paying $90.00+ a brick for .22's, $40.00 @ box for 9 MM, and $50.00 @ box for .45's, aren't shooting them, they're hoarding them. You may in fact have more people OWNING guns. But they're sure as hell not shooting them. At least not to any degree to where they could be called "shooters".

Simply put there isn't a "shortage". Of guns or ammunition. There is only panic buying with people willing to overpay. And that will end like it always has, and always does. Then for all of these idiots, the thrill will be gone, and the ammo will come down in price, and the shelves will once again be full..... And then they won't want it anymore.... Until some politician pulls their trigger, then it will all start up again. People always want what they can't have. Or have trouble getting for fear they're going to lose it.
 

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What is your solution? To maintain the status quo?

What we're seeing is the free market system at work. If someone is willing to pay $80 for a brick of .22 ammo who are we to say that he can't do that? We don't know his reasoning as to why he's willing to pay that other than he values the ammo more than he does his money and the seller values the money more than he does the ammo he's selling.

Any time we try to limit what the seller can charge or the buyer can pay will result in nothing being available at all. .22 ammo only zooms in price when supply cannot meet demand. The buying habits of people is a response to product availability. Once they've lost confidence in manufacturers to keep the shelves stocked, they'll buy whatever they can, whenever they can, because they can no longer rely on the supply chain.
 

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What is your solution? To maintain the status quo?

What we're seeing is the free market system at work. If someone is willing to pay $80 for a brick of .22 ammo who are we to say that he can't do that? We don't know his reasoning as to why he's willing to pay that other than he values the ammo more than he does his money and the seller values the money more than he does the ammo he's selling.

Any time we try to limit what the seller can charge or the buyer can pay will result in nothing being available at all. .22 ammo only zooms in price when supply cannot meet demand. The buying habits of people is a response to product availability. Once they've lost confidence in manufacturers to keep the shelves stocked, they'll buy whatever they can, whenever they can, because they can no longer rely on the supply chain.
I'm not trying to "limit" anything. All I'm saying is you can't expect manufacturers to invest money in equipment that will sit more than it runs. The fact of the matter is, and has been in the past, that these "shortages" don't last. And when they're over with, prices drop, and sales slow. While quantities increase. Always have, and always will.

When this kind of thing happens you use what you have, and run it around the clock. Which is exactly what they're doing. They put out as much product as they are capable of, as fast as they can. Then when it's over, you go back to normal operations. You don't spend millions on equipment in an attempt to appease a few people who stand on the panic button every time this happens.

They'll suffer because of their own shortsightedness. Which is as it should be. These people are no different than those who live in hurricane country, who are always out of gas, water, batteries, and plywood 2 days before a hurricane hits. They'll all wait longer, pay more, and many times won't be able to get what they want or need, because of the limited supply. Just like now with ammunition and guns.
 

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I gather that was a long-winded way of saying, 'stick with the status quo.'

Enjoy the shortages but don't complain about somebody paying $80 for a brick of .22's. He's not the problem.
 
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